Glossary
Forecast bias
A consistent tendency to forecast too high or too low.
Technical definition
The signed average forecast error, indicating systematic over- or under-forecasting.
Formula
Bias = Σ(forecast − actual) ÷ n
Manufacturing example
Forecasts that are always about 5% high have a positive bias.
Common misconception
Bias is not random error; it is directional and can be corrected once detected.
Why it matters operationally
Uncorrected bias quietly inflates inventory or starves service.
Related terms
Put forecast bias to work
See how ConstraintFlow turns operational concepts into optimized decisions.