Glossary

Forecast bias

A consistent tendency to forecast too high or too low.

Technical definition

The signed average forecast error, indicating systematic over- or under-forecasting.

Formula

Bias = Σ(forecast − actual) ÷ n

Manufacturing example

Forecasts that are always about 5% high have a positive bias.

Common misconception

Bias is not random error; it is directional and can be corrected once detected.

Why it matters operationally

Uncorrected bias quietly inflates inventory or starves service.

Related terms

Put forecast bias to work

See how ConstraintFlow turns operational concepts into optimized decisions.